Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.358130 1.544785 1.744527 1.973804 2.229330 2.504966 2.824401
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.093598 1.342610 1.626913 1.974163 2.385393 2.855337 3.431428
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.928193 1.223806 1.582167 2.045359 2.624614 3.321221 4.218064
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.774877 1.096550 1.510165 2.074898 2.818846 3.757545 5.022444
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.683525 1.035208 1.513461 2.200895 3.151122 4.403883 6.162945
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.560358 0.911081 1.416523 2.182224 3.293264 4.823493 7.061167
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.471169 0.821323 1.355225 2.205839 3.498107 5.352237 8.167411
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.391599 0.732363 1.282111 2.202639 3.665170 5.847970 9.283273
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.343765 0.686776 1.269955 2.292089 3.983375 6.598514 10.847765
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.299100 0.638392 1.246077 2.359936 4.277037 7.343797 12.480718
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.256270 0.584908 1.205110 2.393573 4.519721 8.035149 14.098917
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.221455 0.539928 1.172380 2.437345 4.785333 8.790651 15.892115
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.177973 0.468734 1.081252 2.367821 4.857551 9.255783 17.295998
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.142000 0.404865 0.992828 2.289957 4.905964 9.688545 18.695456
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.119776 0.367688 0.953670 2.305437 5.134767 10.467848 20.779285
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.098871 0.327840 0.900766 2.283928 5.289442 11.130354 22.722562
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.087647 0.311092 0.898697 2.374113 5.684346 12.286218 25.680139
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.070904 0.272874 0.835964 2.315820 5.760522 12.836641 27.555429
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.059297 0.246441 0.797620 2.308789 5.947328 13.625554 29.961543
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.048890 0.220043 0.753246 2.279102 6.079612 14.317234 32.239022
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.043230 0.208366 0.747955 2.348678 6.449775 15.537919 35.676515
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.037783 0.195390 0.735962 2.398759 6.780601 16.706486 39.103722
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.032362 0.180224 0.713613 2.416700 7.035760 17.734879 42.322968